Provoking Renamo

Frelimo appears to be intentionally provoking Renamo, pushing it to boycott the elections or return to war.

Negotiations between the late Renamo president Afonso Dhlakama and President Filipe Nyusi were personal and on the telephone. Ultimately, they were based on the belief that the two sides would act in good faith and that there would be some real power and resource sharing. This assumed first that Renamo would win a couple of governorships in fair elections and then have the resources and patronage of Frelimo governors. And it assumed second that Renamo officers would be appointed to senior positions with real power in the military - and the good faith was that Renamo would really demobilise and that it would have enough power in the joint military to prevent attacks on Renamo and a return to hit squads.

Historically both sides wanted the present system because it gives the winning party overwhelming power over resources and patronage. Frelimo believed that it could maintain its hold on power while Dhlakama always wanted to be president - and turned down two earlier power sharing deals. But Dhlakama's change in attitude from 2016 was real, with the understanding that decentralised electoral politics could provide a base for building the party. And Renamo's success in municipal elections shows that his thinking was correct.

Victories in the largest province - Nampula - and largest city - Matola - would give Renamo a huge boost and substantial finance and patronage. Many in Frelimo could not accept this and thus do not accept the Nyusi deal. On the other side, some in Renamo who believe Dhlakama's claim that he won all the elections are displeased at the move to gradualism. And the level of mutual distrust between the two sides is huge.

The Frelimo opponents of the Nyusi deal now appear to have the upper hand. And they are flaunting their power. Electoral fraud which had been local, such as ballot box stuffing in individual polling stations, has now become gross and public: stealing ballot boxes, excluding opposition members from counts, and openly fabricating results when parallel counts shows opposition wins. And then using Frelimo appointees in the National Elections Commission and Constitutional Council to prevent any challenge.

And the military is again dragging its feet, failing to promote Renamo officers as promised. The Defence Minister's comment that Manteigas invented what was written in the August agreement was laughing in his face.

Such a display of bad faith seems intended to provoke a response from Renamo - the hope is probably for a boycott or return to war, or at least to push the Renamo Congress next month to elect a hard line military man as the new leader.

Four members of the Contact Group of foreign ambassadors, set up to facilitate the dialogue between the Mozambican government and Renamo, went to Gorongosa on Thursday 13 December for discussions with Ossufo Momade, the interim coordinator of the Renamo Political Commission. The four were Swiss ambassador Mirko Manzoni, co-chair of the Contact Group; US Ambassador Dean Pittman; the new EU Ambassador Antonio Gaspar; and Botswana High Commissioner Gobe Pitso. Their goal was probably to try to keep Momade from responding to the Frelimo provocations.

But the international community (except for the US) has said nothing to challenge Frelimo's blatant electoral fraud, the foot dragging on military integration, and the delay in presenting essential legislation to parliament (see below).

The impression being given is that with control of the courts and election commissions, Frelimo can steal the October 2019 national elections, and that the international community will not object. Frelimo officials at district level will surely believe that electoral fraud is now licenced.

And if Renamo is to be denied power and resource sharing as promised by Nyusi, and if Nyusi cannot enforce good faith on his own people, is there any point in continuing negotiations? 

( Joseph Hanlon )